DISCLAIMER — Research / education only. Not investment advice. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance. YUCLAW is not a registered investment adviser.
IN-SAMPLE EVENT VALIDATION — Replay
date range 2026-02-18 → 2026-05-13 · total signals 1027
· directional 235
⚠ Note on the in-sample panel: market-data components C1 / C3 / C4 / C5 / C7 ran at 0.3 confidence because the upstream dashboard cache holds only the latest snapshot. Evidence components C6 (events), C8 (cascade), C9 (model trust) are point-in-time exact. The in-sample event validation therefore primarily reflects the evidence layer.
| label | n | directional |
matured 1d/5d/20d |
hit 1d/5d/20d |
median return 5d |
median excess 5d |
| BEARISH_WATCH | 1 | 1 | 1/1/1 | 0% (n=1) prelim / 0% (n=1) prelim / 100% (n=1) prelim | +0.5% | -1.1% |
| BULLISH | 50 | 50 | 50/50/44 | 40% (n=50) / 64% (n=50) / 86% (n=44) | +1.5% | +1.5% |
| NEGATIVE_EVENT | 37 | 37 | 37/37/25 | 65% (n=37) / 57% (n=37) / 56% (n=25) | -1.2% | -0.6% |
| NEUTRAL | 339 | 0 | 339/339/255 | — / — / — | +0.1% | -0.3% |
| WATCH | 453 | 0 | 453/453/342 | — / — / — | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| WEAKENING | 147 | 147 | 147/147/123 | 56% (n=147) / 50% (n=147) / 36% (n=123) | +0.1% | -0.2% |
| OVERALL | 1027 | 235 | 1027/1027/790 | 54% (n=235) / 54% (n=235) / 50% (n=193) | +0.1% | -0.3% |
FORWARD TRACKING LEDGER — Out-of-Sample
date range 2026-05-20 → 2026-06-03 · total signals 1030
· directional 286
| label | n | directional |
matured 1d/5d/20d |
hit 1d/5d/20d |
median return 5d |
median excess 5d |
| BULLISH | 219 | 219 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
| NEUTRAL | 557 | 0 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
| STRONG_BULLISH | 40 | 40 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
| WATCH | 187 | 0 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
| WEAKENING | 27 | 27 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
| OVERALL | 1030 | 286 | 0/0/0 | — / — / — | — | — |
METHODOLOGY
Full methodology, data sources, limitations, and definitions are documented at
docs/methodology/backfill.md.
Key points: data window is 2026-02-18 to 2026-05-17 (~90 days, all post-Llama 3.1 70B
training cutoff); in-sample signals were reconstructed via point-in-time replay
(leak-audited, zero future-event leakage); the Forward Tracking Ledger begins
2026-05-20 and matures daily — 20-day outcomes mature in mid-June.
DISCLAIMER — Research / education only. Not investment advice. Past results — in-sample or forward-tracked — do not predict future performance. YUCLAW is not a registered investment adviser.