YUCLAW
v5.0.0
Independent Replication
Replicate the record yourself
Every statistic on the Validation Lab re-derives from published, derived data — on your machine,
with no account, no API key, and (for the standalone path) no installed dependencies. This page
is the exact procedure, the exact pass criteria, and the public log of reported replications.
Disclaimer — Research & education only. Not investment advice. Replication verifies reproducibility of published statistics — it is not an endorsement of any signal.
1 · How to reproduce — two equivalent paths
Path A — packaged (pip):
pip install yuclaw
yuclaw replay-lab # fetches the published bundle and verifies it
Path B — standalone (Python ≥ 3.10 standard library only, no installs):
curl -sO https://yuclawlab.github.io/yuclaw-brain/replay/lab_replay_bundle.json
curl -sO https://raw.githubusercontent.com/YuClawLab/yuclaw-brain/main/tools/replay_lab.py
python3 replay_lab.py lab_replay_bundle.json
Both paths rebuild the decile cohorts from bundled scores, recompute every statistic
(bootstrap CI with the published seed, Fama-MacBeth IC with Newey-West correction,
market-model alpha), and recompute every sha-256 leaf and daily root against the public
yuclaw-trust ledger.
2 · What counts as a successful replication
- Exit code 0. Any statistic or hash mismatch exits non-zero with a diff report.
- Statistics match the bundle's published
expected block exactly (same seed, same estimators).
- Ledger roots match — every recomputed daily root equals the root committed to the public yuclaw-trust repository.
- Build metadata matches — the bundle's data-through date, build date, and source commit agree with the page and packet you downloaded them from.
3 · How to report — pass or fail, both are wanted
File a Replication report issue using the template
(.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/replication.md). Required fields: OS · Python version ·
exact command · bundle build metadata · sha-256 of the output · result (PASS / FAIL with the
mismatch report verbatim). Reports are added to the public log below, unedited.
4 · Public replication log
No external replications recorded yet; this log accrues as they
arrive. Entries are added verbatim from filed replication issues — pass and fail alike —
and are never edited retroactively.
Status — proven · not proven · accruing
Rendered from one shared source (v3/web/useful_blocks.py) on every page that shows it,
so the copies cannot drift. Statuses are measured, not aspirational.
Proven (verifiable today)
- ✓ Replay works — one command reproduces every Lab statistic and ledger root from published data
- ✓ Ledger anchored daily — sha-256 daily roots committed to a public git repository before pages update
- ✓ Evidence traces to filings — every accepted event carries a source URL, accession number, and verified excerpt
- ✓ Coverage measured — SEC-filer weight per lens is stated as measured, never rounded up
- ✓ Snapshots are point-in-time — daily as-of writes, zero retroactive edits (outage window disclosed, not repaired)
- ✓ Evidence-tier names are never scored — enforced by positive gating and a standing negative check
Not proven
- ✗ Forward alpha — no spread, IC, or alpha significant at 5% with adequate power
- ✗ C6 risk-gate sign — rareness confirmed OOS 2026-07-06 (22% fire rate, n=9 held-out); sign confirmation pending (elevated arm n=2; accrual live from 2026-07-16)
- ✗ Peer-model CAR lead — event-study lead over peer models is not established; live-era sample remains small
Accruing
- · Forward out-of-sample record — one period per trading day, accruing daily
- · Matured CAR events — each accepted event matures into the event study after its forward window completes
- · C6 elevated arm — live Form-4 ingestion since 2026-07-16 restores the insider stream to production inputs
- · External replications — the replication log accrues as independent runs are reported